Matteo Arnaldi vs Novak Djokovic Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• When examining recent second serve success, Arnaldi outperforms Djokovic, winning 48.28% of points compared to Djokovic's 42.61%. Could this hint at an edge for Arnaldi in second serve scenarios? Given the high correlation with match outcomes, it might.
• Regarding return games, Arnaldi shows superior performance with a 42.65% success rate on opponent's second serves versus Djokovic's 39.68%. On first serve returns, Arnaldi again leads with 27.2% against Djokovic's 23.38%.
• Under pressure, Djokovic excels in saving breakpoints at 56.29%, slightly better than Arnaldi's 54.4% rate. Does Djokovic have the edge in high-pressure moments?
• In terms of overall match performance over the last year, Djokovic boasts a higher win rate, achieving 77.08% versus Arnaldi's 52.94%.
• Surface proficiency reveals Djokovic's grass success rate of 86%, while Arnaldi performs best on clay with 66%, but both struggle more on indoor hard courts.
• They have one direct head-to-head matchup, in which Arnaldi emerged victorious in straight sets during their clay encounter at the Mutua Madrid Open.
• If the match extends to a deciding set, Djokovic holds a better win percentage at 60%, outweighing Arnaldi's 47%.
• Both players' breakpoint conversion rates show Djokovic leading at 32.73%, compared to Arnaldi's 27.15%.
• The quality of opponents faced recently show Djokovic generally contending with players ranked lower than those Arnaldi faces.

Editorial Prediction (May 22, 2025, UTC):

In evaluating second serve and return statistics, Matteo Arnaldi seems to hold a slight advantage over Novak Djokovic. His ability to return serves effectively could play a pivotal role in the match outcome.

Nevertheless, Djokovic's superior experience in high-pressure situations and his overall consistency across various performance metrics cannot be overlooked. His higher breakpoint conversion rate and greater success in deciding sets highlight his edge when it matters most.

While Arnaldi has shown potential by winning their previous encounter, Djokovic's comprehensive game and experience against tougher competition make him a slight favorite.

With all factors considered, Djokovic is likely to clinch the victory in this upcoming match, leveraging his experience and consistent performance in critical junctures.